
This week has been a boon for the American economy. Or so the “experts” say. The Wall Street Journal declared that the U.S. economy will rebound in September. In a WSJ survey, 52 economists asserted that the recession will end in August. Alan Greenspan declared at the National Association of Realtors conference in Washington, D.C. “So while I look at the housing market as something that gives me grave concern, we are finally beginning to see the seeds of a bottoming.”
While job losses continue to mount to the tune of 600-700,000 each month, foreclosures this year alone will climb to 2-3million, the Big Boys continue to pump out cheerful economic news. Weren’t they the same ones who heralded an endless housing boom? Greenspan said famously in 2006 that the worst of housing downturn “was behind us.” Not Greenspan, Wall Street financial wizards or the “experts” at the Wall Street Journal called the financial crisis before it happened. They were caught completely off-guard, “bewildered” as Greenspan would term it. So why in the world would we believe anything they claim now?
“This is no normal recession and there will be no V-shaped recovery,” says Mark Patterson, chairman of Matlin Patterson Advisers. Addressing the Qatar Global Investment Forum this week, Patterson continued to send shockwaves through the investment fund crowd. As to the “glimmers of hope” Obama, Bernanke and Warren Buffett proclaim? “It’s a sham. The banks are insolvent,” says Patterson.”The US government is trying to sedate the public because they are down to the last $100bn (£66bn) of the $700bn TARP funds.”
The reason these words shocked the well-healed financial market audience is not because they didn’t know the bank bailout had failed, but because they did. Only no one inside the money trail is supposed to admit this publicly. The fact that the nation’s 19 largest banks are in more financial stress than ever and small regional banks are set for a major collapse is not news to anyone present at the Forum. It is only news for the general American public.
So why would the Federal Reserve, the Obama Administration and Treasury Department mislead the American public down the yellow brick road of spray-painted gold? “They think they’re doing this for the greater good of society,” continued Patterson.
The common belief held by the powers that be who (allegedly) look out for the common man and woman is that if the American investing and consumer public believe things are getting better, they will. Isn’t that what Dorothy believed about the Wizard of Oz? In the end, even Dorothy found out he was a fraud.
“The taxpayers ought to know that we are in effect receiving a subsidy,” Patterson explained in blunt terms that the government bailout supports Wall Street and throws the ordinary American taxpayer overboard. The Daily Telegraph in the UK reports, “The US Treasury’s effort to stabilize the banking system through the TARP programme is a hopelessly ill-conceived policy that enriches speculators at public expense.” Why do we have to read the news in the United Kingdom to find out the truth of U.S. policy?
But it really is no surprise to most Americans. We all know this in the deepest part of our souls. We have eyes to see and ears to hear! Millions of small business owners know there is no credit available to support their growth. Tens of millions of workers know their days at their jobs are numbered. American homeowners worry every day whether they can keep their families afloat and the roofs over their heads. Dean Baker of the UK’s Guardian reports that a foreseeable recovery in the U.S. economy is “wishing thinking” and the data actually reveals “no end in sight.”
After the fallout of the Savings and Loan crisis and the subsequent October 1987’s Black Monday, the residential and commercial real-estate market took a decade to turn around. The devastating affects on the manufacturing and service industries continued to hit Main Street hard long after the crisis was over for Wall Street. Money men take care of themselves and rebound light years ahead of ordinary citizens.
So where is the economy rebounding?
I was in Seattle this past weekend, one of my favorite places to visit extended family and friends. Everyone was in a fine mood. My girlfriend and I took her mother to the South Center Mall off Highway 5 just outside of Seattle. The Mall was packed to the brim. It took 15 minutes to find a parking spot. The Gene Juarez Spa where we waited for her mom to enjoy a Mother’s Day pampering was ten deep in the check-out queue. You would think they were giving things away! My friend works for My Space and even though the company laid off 150 workers last week, she feels secure.
I was wondering if it was a Mother’s Day mirage or if the Pacific Northwest hadn’t been hit with the same economic tsunami that the east coast had. Living in New York, the city is experiencing the worst downturn since September 11, 2001. Businesses are closing left and right. My office building in the Flatiron district is half deserted from formerly full occupancy. An appointment with my dentist usually requires three months to book. The secretary said, “Come on in, we are wide open.” Even Donald Trump complained to a local New York paper that no one was lending, buying or selling in the Manhattan real-estate market. World-class 5 Star restaurants are advertising $24 prix fixe menus.
Illinois, Ohio, Michigan, Florida, California, Nevada, New Jersey, New York, Massachusetts, Louisiana, Connecticut, Pennsylvania…these are just a few of the states suffering from deep recessions. Apparently, some states have not felt the pain yet in a big way.
What is our economic prosperity based on? Production and Consumption. These have shrunk by about 60% nationally. What is our financial system based on? Banking and Credit. These have virtually disappeared. 90% of the United States banking system is insolvent resulting in 90% of all private consumer credit disappearing. The only credit currently issued is the small amount from still solvent credit unions and billions of government sponsored home loans.
Patterson said, “The U.S. Treasury is out of its depth and seems to be trying to put off drastic action by pretending that the banking system is still viable…We’re going to see a catastrophic increase” in the number of defaults. He claimed financial firms are knee-deep in debt and can’t refinance. These firms are making money by “gambling with excessive leverage, so the knife that cuts off leverage is going to cut off their heads as well.”
Okay. Been there, done that. Uh-oh…over-leveraging is how we got into this mess, remember?
Arianna Huffington wrote this week in the Huffington Post of a bewildering “financial euphoria” taking hold of market makers. Not only does she see this as premature, she wisely asserted that this false bravura “narrows the window for reform.” Arianna states that the banking class is “terrified of serious financial reform” and therefore is spreading the word to celebrate recovery.
Arianna stated that despite public assertions to the contraryy, there isn’t a genuine appetite for reform and regulation from the new administration. In fact, top Obama guns seem to be recreating the former status quo with new policy. Obama’s money men include, Larry Summers, one of the architects of the reversal of the Glass-Steagall Act and Tim Geither “who actually talks the talk of a reformer, but walks the walk of a Wall Street true believer.”
Ms. Huffington continued, “It’s time to stop pretending that the Wall Street economy is the same as the real economy. The Wall Street economy may be showing signs of life — thanks to the hundreds of billions we have poured into it — but the real economy isn’t.”
This seems to jive with the increasingly suffering masses who shoulder the burden for Wall Street’s boon with the painful realities of escalating unemployment and unlimited foreclosures. The credit squeeze is strangling the ordinary American family, homeowner and small business owner. The clock is running out for helping them avoid insolvency.
Yet Arianna thinks the window is closing on reform because the Big Boys are feeling their oats. The true economy is the one they are sitting on with big fat bottoms. When they come crashing down even harder than before, the Big Boys will regret their lapse in action, because the folks they crush with their indifference will call for their heads.
Yet I am not as worried as Arianna. Like her I understand that Wall Street financed with taxpayer dollars can’t last forever. Sooner or later the top of the food chain will become too heavy for the masses as it did in 2008 and come barreling down again with a bigger boom than before. We are just biding our time.
Yet do I think that America’s Fool, Alan Greenspan, is accurately predicting a housing market upturn? Do I think the dinosaur elitists at the soon to be obsolete Wall Street Journal are calling the end of the recession in 4 months correctly? No, I don’t.
I think August or September will see a tide turning when even Seattle’s booming consumership turns cold. Money is currently being directed where it will do no good -into the pockets of those who ripped it away from ordinary American pockets. It is only a matter of time when the government coffers run dry.
The engine of the economy needs to be fueled with large amounts of cash indeed. But that engine is no longer Wall Street. It is ordinary working America that is the real engine of the real economy- the one that supports the fake economy of Wall Street smoke and mirrors. Working America is where the money (gross national product) comes from. Labor over time equals money- the time it takes for a homeowner to pay back a 30 year mortgage, the 10 years it takes for a student to repay a loan. This is the real economic engine that urgently needs its wheels greased.
But I am not worried, nor should you be. Because when the boom falls upon us again, the window will open wide for the necessary transformation of business that is destined to be. The American fools will not be ordinary people, but those who forgot the most important lessons of history. The wheels of American Justice inevitably turn towards progress and reform.